Government of Pakistan

Ministry of  Defence (Defence Division)

                                                                                                                                                                                   Pakistan Meteorological Department

Headquarters Office

Sector H-8/2

Islamabad - 44000

                                                                          

 Website:    www.pmd.gov.pk  

                                                                                                                Email:    PakMet_Islamabad@yahoo.com

Pakmet@Pakmet.com

 

                                                                              Dated: 16^th January, 2010            

       Advisory:

 

 

Emerging Drought conditions in the Country

 

            Most parts of the country are experiencing extremely dry conditions mainly due to the prevailing El-Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean. The El-Nino Conditions which developed in June, 2009, and suppressed Pakistan Monsoon rainfall by about 30%, are likely to continue till next summer.

            Since the end of monsoon season, which too was deficient, most parts of the country, except some areas of Central & North Balochistan, have not received any significant rain fall.

            Drought generally occurs in the following three stages.

 

(i)        Meteorological Drought occurs when rainfall is below 40% of the expected rainfall in any area for an extended period.

           Most parts of the country are under severe Meteorological drought conditions because no appreciable rainfall has occurred during the last four months

 

(ii)        Hydrological Drought occurs when there is a sustained deficit in surface runoff below normal conditions.

            The country is experiencing hydrological drought conditions because the availability of surface water in major reservoirs have aggravated due to 30% below normal rains during monsoon and persistent long dry spell afterwards. since temperatures in catchment areas have already reached at freezing level, so no significant improvements in the reservoirs is expected during coming weeks.

            Tarbela Dam:

            Water level in Tarbela is presently 131 feet below the maximum conservation level, indicating that only 0.994 m.a.f. live water storage is available against dam live capacity of 9.30 m.a.f.

             Mangla Dam:

            Water level in mangla is presently 128 feet below the maximum conservation level, indicating that only 0.4 m.a.f. live water storage is available against dam live capacity of 4.82 m.a.f. Comparison at last 10 year's data indicates that water situation is similar to the drought year of 2002.

            Inflows in Rawal, Khanpur and Simly Dams are also diminishing that may lead to shortage in urban areas because the rainfall in catchment areas is likely to remain below normal.

 

(iii)        Agricultural Drought occurs when rainfall amount and distribution, soil water reserves and evaporation losses combine to start effecting crops.

             After crossing two stages of drought i.e. meteorological and hydrological drought the country is now entering the emerging agricultural drought stages.

              Barani areas of the country which are already experiencing crops failure, are under severe agricultural drought.

              In the face of diminishing irrigation water, irrigated plain areas are also likely to come under emerging agriculture drought condition.

            According to the prevailing meteorological conditions, the cold and dry weather conditions are likely to continue for another week and significantly below normal (30%) winter rains are predicted during the month of January and February in most parts of the country.

            In the present scenario of worsening drought condition in the country, judicious use of available water resources and efficient agriculture/irrigation practices are advised.

       

 

(Dr. Qamar-uz-Zaman Chaudhry)

Director General, PMD